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September 16, 2004
Mobile HCI 2004: David Wood keynote
Wide commercial adoption of improvements in Mobile HCI
David Wood
EVP Research, Symbian
enabling simply great mobile phones
an advocate of mobile phones
not interested in convergence
am interested in ubiquity
peronal context-
three brains
biological, Psion Series 5mx, Samsung SGHD710 smartphone - allows communication, content, commerce
mobile window to the digital world
i have had many great mobile browsing experiences [*cough* early adopter *cough*]
forgetting the laptop - most powerful, but least immediate
before long, people will have two active brains (smartphone) [ignores networked brain]
phones that are computers - not necessary for smartphones
smartphones defined:
mobile phones with increasing capability
greater on board intelligence
larger data storage
better connectivity to networks and devices
larger, clearer screen
easier input of data by various means
+
easier programming of the onboard intelligence
+
retains original phone attributes
voice comms, portable, good battery life [doesn't crash]
(not happy with term smartphone either)
phones first!
three waves of mobiles:
pre 2000 - great communications, voice and text, robust, reliable, small, light
2000-2004 - rich experience - colour, camera, audio, ringtones, video, memory
2004 onwards - open phones - rich programmability, innovation, virtuous cycle
virtuous cycle of consumers, handset manufacturers, networks and developers
PCs weren't successful because of what was built into them, but the applications that were made (but then they get integrated)
why has it taken so long?
developers have been waiting for programmability
consumers waiting for the networks
lack of sufficient number of programmable advanced phones
plus need infrastructure, architecture and open standards
"The Slow Pace of Fast Change" Bhaskar Chakravorti
disruptive innovations have to precipitate the dismantling of an existing equilibrium
disruptive change takes twice as long as Moore's Law predicts
single most important strategic driver-
volume phone sales
sales volume is the biggest driver of confidence
how will this happen?
Moore's Law - smartphone cost has gone from 132 dollars in 2003, 115 in 2004, 78 dollars by 2008 (Bill of Materials cost) - mainly display and semiconductor costs getting cheaper
total phone sales going from 500 million in 2004, 600 million in 2008. Smartphones going from 50 million to 200 million.
they will sell well provided...
allow users to build on and do more of the things that caused users to buy phones in the first place - communication (and messaging) (same as why people get on the Internet) - if content, user-generated content
fashion and fun - personalisation - show phones off. ringtone market bigger than singles market.
safety and connection - timely info in context
AND they allow users to do these things simply even though these phones are increasingly complex
'it's easy to make something hard, and hard to make something easy' - Myer's Law
6 dimernsions of meeting extra user needs: (on top of core phone features)
1. gaming capabilities
multi player games and mobile access to online worlds
2. entertainment
filling slack time enjoyably
3. personal productivity
scheduling, jotter, to do
4. business productivity
access to corporate data
5. e commerce
6. easy access to tailored information
network effects, viral marketing, super-distribution
p2p, bluetooth / wifi
not just envious if you don't have, but excluded
Mobile Disruption - Jeffrey L Funk
explains smartphone takeoff in Japan
a hint of the future - but not as open in Japan
Java only has restricted access to upper levels of phone functionality
C++ provides much richer access
C++ enables ecosystem of middleware suppliers
challenges and risks
1. Openness will provide malware (intentional and unintentional)
users' concerns - no surprises on the bill, personal data to stay personal (even when showing phones around), no viruses
operators' concerns - network has to be safe, and keep users happy
developer's concerns - be able to develop innovate successful apps
response:
signing program
but PC shows signing program can be problematic
smaller companies or individuals can distribute their software via publishers who take the responsibility
have to have rigorous identity of authorship
not conformance to any style guidelines
2. Overwhelming complexity
users are bamboozled
but don't go the other way, users are frustrated
there is no one right answer! - let the market decide
how do you get the networking effect if there are lots and lots of different UIs?
market fragmentation
Differentiation without fragmentation
OS supports multiple rich visions
but UIs are different
come into families, but choice for end users
keep most programming the same
Common OS APIs and technologies
not much to port
about 20% of application
6 by Fujitsu in Japan
raku raku easy and simple phone targeted at the elderly
Role of the OS
tame the underlying technological complexities
make it look simple
allow myriad software components to coexist and collaborate
making complex software simple
interaction design has a key role to play
but OS needs to be sensitive to the requirements of the IDs
ID needs to be done early, without too much fixed, and when software can still be changed
principle: "design for change"
don't design for requirements of today
in principle, adaptable to new requirements
complexity needs architecture
software in seperate modules with clear interfaces [presumably programmatic]
some software badly designed, but mainly good design but then added complexity needs to be added
development costs rise with functionality
picking the drivers for change
don't choose the HCI, believe in Dawinian selection
have to choose enablers though
customer-led partly, but not suffient
compelling commercial end-to-end solution
key forthcoming enablers - 12-24 months
constant improvements in performance (not suffiecient to rely on Moore's Law - software gets slower quicker than hardware gets faster)
new graphics libraries - animation, 2d/3d pipeline
security - DRM, mobile commerce
bluetooth coming of age - PANs
device management
framework for LBS
rich voice
Symbian Expo - Oct 5th 6th tradeshow
Qs
more APIs esp. phone functionality may become more available
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